Oil prices rose again on Tuesday morning in Asia. Brent crude's front-month contract traded at about US$106.65 a barrel, up 1.3% on the day and about 61% higher than a year earlier, according to Trading Economics data on 29 September. US benchmark WTI was near US$93.78 (Trading Economics).

The driver remains the conflict involving Iran and access to the Strait of Hormuz. For Asia, which buys most of the oil that passes through the strait, higher prices feed into inflation, currencies and government budgets.

A note on which "Brent" price you see

Headline Brent prices differ this week because of the futures calendar. The November contract, the current front month, stops trading on 30 September, according to ICE's expiry calendar. On 28 September it traded about US$8.20 a barrel above the December contract, Rigzone reported. Quotes near US$106 refer to November; quotes near US$99–100 usually refer to December. The gap shows how tight near-term supply is. It also means the headline price may drop when the benchmark rolls to December, even if the market itself does not move.

Benchmark Price Change Source
Brent (front month, Nov) ~$106.65 +1.3% d/d; +61.5% y/y Trading Economics, 29 Sep
WTI ~$93.78 +1.3% d/d Trading Economics, 29 Sep
Brent (Nov), late Mon 28 Sep ~$105.15 +0.8% MT Newswires via MarketScreener

Prices move through the trading day. These figures were taken on the morning of 29 September, Asian time.

What is moving prices

Hormuz diplomacy. Rigzone reported on 28 September that US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran was holding to its conditions. Trading Economics noted that Iranian officials doubted a deal could be reached before the US midterm elections in November.

Supply still offline. The International Energy Agency said in its September Oil Market Report that more than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf output remained offline. It estimated that global stocks had been drawn down by 507 million barrels since February (IEA).

OPEC+ on hold. On 6 September, seven OPEC+ members decided to keep their required production for October at September levels. They meet next on 4 October (OPEC).

Analysts are wary of calling the next move. "Predicting price movements is a brave undertaking," Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates said, as quoted by Rigzone. Aaron Kildow of Sparta Commodities described "another wild week in the oil markets where true volatility is borne by the whims of our political leaders and the tides of war."

What the forecasters expect

Agency Latest view
IEA (11 Sep) World oil demand to fall 2.5 million b/d in 2026, then rebound by 2.6 million b/d in 2027
OPEC (10 Sep) 2026 demand growth of 380,000 b/d, its fifth consecutive cut, according to Reuters via Investing.com
US EIA (9 Sep) Brent averaging about $90 in the second half of 2026, easing to about $67 in the second half of 2027 as flows normalise (EIA)

The EIA assumes that flows through the region stay constrained through the fourth quarter and return to pre-conflict levels by the second quarter of 2027. Its forecast is below today's price because it assumes supply gradually recovers. A lasting deal over Hormuz, or further disruption, would change that path quickly.

Why Asia is most exposed

According to the US Energy Information Administration, about 84% of the crude oil and condensate shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 went to Asia. China, India, Japan and South Korea took most of it.

In an April blog, IMF economists Andrea Pescatori and Krishna Srinivasan noted that Asia consumes about 38% of the world's oil. They estimated that in a severe scenario, the region's major economies could lose around 2 percentage points of cumulative output by 2027, compared with the reference scenario (IMF).

Higher oil import bills also weigh on the currencies of importers with external deficits. Several Asian currencies, including the rupiah, the Philippine peso and the Indian rupee, have weakened against the dollar this year, according to ADB market data.

The Indonesian angle

The budget. Indonesia's crude price (ICP) averaged US$89.43 a barrel in August, up from US$81.68 in July, ANTARA reported. The 2026 state budget assumed US$70. In July the government said subsidy and compensation needs would rise by about Rp132 trillion, raised its ICP outlook to US$83, and widened its deficit outlook to 2.85% of GDP, from 2.68% (Bisnis).

The Director General of Oil and Gas, Laode Sulaeman, attributed the rise to "global market dynamics influenced by high geopolitical risk and potential supply disruptions on crucial routes" (NDNews translation).

Pump prices. In April, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa pledged that subsidised fuel prices would not rise before the end of 2026, on the assumption that oil averages about US$100 a barrel over the period (DDTC News). Front-month Brent is now trading above that assumption. Non-subsidised fuels are adjusted monthly. In Pertamina's 1 September update, according to ANTARA:

  • Unchanged: Pertalite at Rp10,000 a litre and Biosolar at Rp6,800.
  • Raised: Pertamax Turbo to Rp19,600 and Dexlite to Rp23,700.

The rupiah. The currency traded around Rp17,948 per dollar on the morning of 28 September. VIVA linked the weakness partly to higher oil prices. For the interest-rate response, see our APAC central bank rates tracker.

What to watch this week

  1. 30 September: Brent November contract expiry and the roll to December.
  2. Early October: Pertamina's usual monthly update of non-subsidised fuel prices.
  3. 4 October: OPEC+ meeting on November output.
  4. US–Iran talks: any movement on reopening Hormuz is the biggest single swing factor.

For the daily market picture, see our latest Asia Market Wrap.

This article was researched with AI assistance and reviewed by the NDNews editorial team. Prices are as of the morning of 29 September 2026 (Asian time) and change during trading. It is not investment advice.