Southeast Asian currencies are heading into the last quarter of 2026 under pressure. A stronger US interest-rate outlook, oil prices above US$100 a barrel and foreign outflows have pushed the currencies of the region's oil importers lower this year.

The picture is not the same everywhere. The rupiah, baht and peso have each lost around 5–6% against the US dollar, while the ringgit, the Vietnamese dong and the Singapore dollar are roughly where they started the year.

This guide sets out where each currency stands, what banks forecast for the fourth quarter, and the central bank meetings that could change the picture.

Where the currencies stand

Currency Level vs US dollar (around 2 October) Change in 2026
Indonesian rupiah (IDR) about 17,900 about −6%
Thai baht (THB) about 33.6 about −6%
Philippine peso (PHP) about 62.5 about −5%
Malaysian ringgit (MYR) about 4.08 about −1%
Vietnamese dong (VND) about 26,000 about +1%
Singapore dollar (SGD) about 1.28 about +0.4%

A negative change means the local currency has weakened. Levels are approximate and come from Finimize, The Star, Radar PH, UOB and FXStreet, with yearly changes calculated by NDNews or taken from those reports.

Market positioning reflects the split. In a Reuters poll published on 1 October, investors' bets against the rupiah and the baht were the largest since late July and bearish bets on the peso remained firm, while the ringgit stayed largely resilient and investors kept bets in favour of the Singapore dollar, according to Investing.com.

"Central banks are cognizant of this environment (high yields and crude prices) and have pledged to keep regional currencies stable," Fiona Lim of Maybank said in the poll report.

What banks forecast for year-end

Two major banks' published fourth-quarter forecasts (US dollar against each currency):

Bank (date) IDR THB MYR PHP VND SGD
UOB, 4Q26 (25 Sep) 18,200 33.8 4.11 64.0 26,300 1.28
MUFG, Q4 2026 (1 Oct) 18,350 34.10 4.03 62.80 26,100 1.275

Sources: UOB, MUFG Research.

Both banks expect the rupiah to weaken a little further, to above 18,000 per dollar. They differ on the ringgit and the peso. MUFG sees the ringgit strengthening to 4.03, and Jeff Ng of SMBC sees it near 4.0. "We could see a relief rally in the ringgit toward the year-end as macro environment concerns ease," Ng said, as quoted by The Star. UOB, by contrast, sees the peso weakening to 64.0.

Forecasts like these change often, and the gap between banks shows how uncertain the outlook is.

Central banks: who might move next

Central bank Current rate Last move Next meeting What analysts expect
Bank Indonesia 5.75% Hold, 22–23 Sep 20–21 Oct Mostly a hold; some see a hike by year-end
Bank of Thailand 1.00% Hold, 26 Aug 28 Oct Hold
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas 5.00% +0.25 point, 27 Aug 22 Oct Split between a hold and another hike
Bank Negara Malaysia 2.75% Hold, 3 Sep 5 Nov UOB sees a hike to 3.00%
State Bank of Vietnam 4.50% (refinancing rate) — No fixed calendar Hold
Monetary Authority of Singapore Exchange-rate policy Slight tightening, 27 Jul Late October (date unconfirmed) Views split

Indonesia. Bank Indonesia has held its rate at 5.75% for three meetings after raising it by a total of 100 basis points earlier this year. In a Bisnis survey before the September meeting, 12 of 14 economists expected a hold. David Sumual of BCA argued for a hike to 6.00% and said the BI Rate could rise by 25–50 basis points by year-end, Bisnis reported. UOB forecasts 6.00% in the fourth quarter.

Governor Destry Damayanti said the September decision "remains consistent with the strategy of stabilising the rupiah exchange rate amid still-strong external pressures," CNN Indonesia reported (NDNews translation).

Thailand. The Bank of Thailand has kept its rate at 1.00%, one of the lowest in the region, as growth slows. Nomura expects it to stay there through 2027, according to Focus Economics.

Philippines. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has raised its rate three times this year, by a total of 75 basis points. The IMF and the Asian Development Bank both expect further tightening, Daily Tribune reported, while UOB expects a hold. Inflation was 6.1% in August, well above the 2–4% target range.

Malaysia. Bank Negara Malaysia held its policy rate at 2.75% in September, according to its monetary policy statement. Inflation is low, at 1.9% in August.

Singapore. The Monetary Authority of Singapore manages the Singapore dollar against a basket of currencies rather than setting an interest rate. It tightened policy very slightly in July, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Its next statement is expected in late October.

The US factor

The biggest single driver remains the US Federal Reserve. It raised its rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September. "Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal," the Fed said in its statement. Fed officials' projections point to at least one more increase this year.

After weak US jobs data on 2 October, which showed only 29,000 new jobs in September, the US dollar index fell below 102, FXStreet reported. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5%, according to Federal Reserve data. Higher US yields tend to draw money away from Asian markets.

Inflation and bond yields

Country Latest inflation 10-year government bond yield (2 Oct)
Indonesia 3.28% (Sep) 7.16%
Thailand 2.53% (Aug) 2.34%
Malaysia 1.9% (Aug) 4.01%
Philippines 6.1% (Aug) 7.75%
Vietnam 5.08% (Sep) —
Singapore 2.2% core (Aug) —

Bond yields are from Trading Economics; inflation figures are from national statistics agencies as reported by Xinhua, The Star, Inquirer and VnEconomy.

Foreign investors held 13.09% of Indonesian government bonds as of 15 September, Deputy Finance Minister Juda Agung said, as reported by IDX Channel. A lower foreign share means the market is less exposed to sudden selling by overseas investors.

Key dates

Date Event
20–21 Oct Bank Indonesia
22 Oct Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
27–28 Oct US Federal Reserve
28 Oct Bank of Thailand
Late Oct Monetary Authority of Singapore (date unconfirmed)
3 Nov US midterm elections
5 Nov Bank Negara Malaysia
17–18 Nov Bank Indonesia
8–9 Dec US Federal Reserve
15–16 Dec Bank Indonesia

For each central bank's latest decision, see our APAC central bank rates tracker. For the equity outlook, read our ASEAN stock markets year-end guide.

Bottom line

Banks expect the rupiah, baht and peso to stay weak into year-end, while the ringgit and the Singapore dollar look steadier. The direction depends largely on the US Federal Reserve and on oil prices. Within the region, the Philippine central bank is the most likely to raise rates, while UOB also forecasts hikes by Bank Indonesia and Bank Negara Malaysia.

This article was researched with AI assistance and reviewed by the NDNews editorial team. It is based on central bank statements, bank research and market data as of 5 October 2026. Not investment advice: currency and rate forecasts are uncertain and are revised often.