Indonesia and Thailand meet tonight in the final of the FIFA ASEAN Cup in Jakarta (see our match preview). Off the pitch, the two countries are also rivals, competing for factories, data centres, electric-vehicle plants and tourists.

They are very different economies. Indonesia is larger and growing faster. Thailand is richer per person but growing slowly. This article compares them on the main indicators, using the latest official and international data available on 5 October 2026.

Size: Indonesia is much larger

According to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook database (April 2026 projections for 2026):

Indicator (2026, IMF) Indonesia Thailand
Nominal GDP US$1,539.9 billion US$580.0 billion
GDP at purchasing power parity US$5,449.1 billion US$1,963.7 billion
Population 287.2 million 71.6 million
GDP per person US$5,362 US$8,105

Indonesia's economy is about 2.7 times the size of Thailand's in dollar terms. But because Indonesia has four times as many people, the average Thai person produces about 50% more output.

Growth: Indonesia is faster

In the second quarter of 2026, Indonesia's economy grew 5.29% from a year earlier, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), as reported by RRI. That was slower than 5.61% in the first quarter.

Thailand grew 1.9% in the same period, down from 2.8%. After seasonal adjustment, its economy shrank 0.2% from the previous quarter, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), as reported by Khaosod English. It was the slowest growth among six major ASEAN economies.

NESDC Secretary-General Danucha Pichayanan said growth had slowed sharply from 2.8% in the first quarter, Khaosod English reported. He also pointed to risks including global trade uncertainty, high household debt and the effect of El Niño on farming.

Forecasts for the full year:

2026 growth forecast Indonesia Thailand
Asian Development Bank (September) 5.2% 2.0%
IMF (July) 5.0% 1.9%
National forecasters — 2.3% (Bank of Thailand); 2.0–2.5% (NESDC)

Sources: ADB, The Nation, Khaosod English, IDNFinancials, The Nation, The Star.

The ADB points to higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict as a drag on the region, and the IMF cites higher fuel and import costs. For Thailand, the global AI and electronics cycle is a support, through exports and investment. (For background, see our report on how the Iran war is hitting Asia's economies.)

Prices and interest rates: very different settings

Indonesia Thailand
Latest inflation 3.28% (September) 2.53% (August)
Central bank rate 5.75% 1.00%
Last decision Hold, 22–23 September Hold, 26 August
Next meeting 20–21 October 28 October

Sources: Databoks, The Star, Bisnis.

Bank Indonesia raised its rate by a total of 100 basis points in May and June to support the rupiah and has held it since. Governor Destry Damayanti, who was sworn in on 2 September, said the September hold was consistent with stabilising the rupiah "amid external pressures" and supporting the inflation target of 2.5% plus or minus 1% (NDNews translation). The Bank of Thailand, by contrast, cut its rate in February and has kept it at 1.00% since.

Both currencies have weakened this year. The rupiah was about 6.8% weaker against the US dollar year to date as of 23 September, according to IDNFinancials. The baht moved from about 31.5 per dollar at the start of the year to about 33.6 on 2 October, a fall of roughly 6%, based on market data.

External buffers: Thailand is stronger

  • Reserves: Indonesia's gross foreign-exchange reserves were US$146.5 billion at the end of August, equal to 5.4 months of imports, RRI reported. Thailand's net reserves were above US$300 billion, according to The Nation. (The two figures are measured differently.)
  • Current account: Indonesia ran a deficit of US$12.5 billion in the second quarter, equal to 3.3% of GDP and the largest quarterly deficit since at least 2004, IDNFinancials reported. For the full year, the IMF projects a deficit of 1.1% of GDP for Indonesia and a surplus of 0.7% for Thailand.

Public finances and credit ratings

(2026, IMF) Indonesia Thailand
Government debt 41.5% of GDP 66.8% of GDP
Budget balance −2.9% of GDP −2.2% of GDP

Indonesia has much lower debt, but its credit outlook has weakened this year. Moody's (Baa2) moved Indonesia's outlook to negative on 5 February, according to Bank Indonesia's investor relations unit, and Fitch (BBB) did the same on 5 March, The Jakarta Post reported. S&P affirmed BBB with a stable outlook in July, according to The Jakarta Post. Thailand moved the other way: Fitch raised its outlook on Thailand's BBB+ rating to stable from negative on 18 September, The Nation reported.

Stock markets: opposite directions

The gap is sharpest in equities. Jakarta's main index, the IHSG, closed at 6,036.88 on 2 October, about 30% lower than at the end of 2025, according to Bisnis. Bangkok's SET index was up 26.6% for the year at the end of August, Kaohoon International reported.

Foreign investors have sold Indonesian shares and bought Thai ones. By 2 October, foreign net selling on the Indonesia Stock Exchange had reached Rp82.55 trillion this year, according to Bisnis. On the Thai market, foreign investors were net buyers of THB51.18 billion from January to August, Kaohoon International reported. For the outlook, read our ASEAN stock markets year-end guide.

Investment, data centres and EVs

Investment. Indonesia's realised investment was Rp1,010.6 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 7.2% from a year earlier, DDTC News reported. Thailand's Board of Investment received applications worth THB1.473 trillion in the same period, up 37%, of which THB1.115 trillion was for digital projects and data centres, The Nation reported. The two figures measure different things: Indonesia reports investment actually made, Thailand reports applications.

Data centres. Both countries are competing for AI-driven data-centre investment. Thailand has paused 166 projects while it sets new rules on power, water and location, Thailand Business News reported. For regional context, see our report on how many data centres Southeast Asia has.

Electric vehicles. Thailand moved early with EV incentives linked to local production. Indonesia is also adding capacity: BYD inaugurated a plant in Subang, West Java, with capacity of 150,000 vehicles a year on 3 September, SMM reported.

Tourism: Thailand still far ahead

Thailand received 32.9 million foreign visitors in 2025, down 7.2%, according to Skift, while Indonesia received 15.39 million, RRI reported. This year the trends differ: Indonesia's arrivals were up 5.38% to 10.58 million in January–August, according to RCTI+, while Thailand's were down 3.12% to 21.28 million by 5 September, according to The Star.

The scorecard

Category Advantage
Size and growth Indonesia
Income per person Thailand
Reserves and current account Thailand
Government debt Indonesia
Credit outlook in 2026 Thailand
Stock market in 2026 Thailand
Tourism Thailand (larger); Indonesia (growing)

The scorecard is a simple summary, not a ranking. Each economy faces its own challenge: for Indonesia, keeping investor confidence and the rupiah stable; for Thailand, lifting slow growth.

This article was researched with AI assistance and reviewed by the NDNews editorial team. It is based on IMF, ADB, central bank and official statistics as reported up to 5 October 2026. It is not investment advice.