Southeast Asian stock markets enter the last quarter of 2026 sharply divided. Thailand and Singapore have delivered strong gains, while Indonesia has had one of its worst years in a generation. The Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam sit in between, all slightly down.

This guide sets out where each market stands, what brokers expect by year-end, and the events that matter most between now and December. Analysts' targets are forecasts, not guarantees, and they are revised often.

Where the markets stand

Closing levels on Friday, 2 October, compared with the end of 2025:

Index Market Close, 2 Oct Change in 2026
IHSG (JCI) Indonesia 6,036.89 about −30%
SET Thailand 1,571.62 about +25%
STI Singapore 5,634.82 about +21%
FBM KLCI Malaysia 1,630.87 about −3%
PSEi Philippines 5,629.03 about −7%
VN-Index Vietnam 1,737.71 about −3%

Year-to-date changes are NDNews calculations from closing levels reported by CNBC Indonesia, Kaohoon International, Business Today, The Star, The Manila Times and Vietnam News, and from 2025 closing levels. The Vietnam figure is approximate.

Most of the region's markets fell in the week to 2 October: Jakarta lost 3.3%, Manila 3.4%, Kuala Lumpur 2.3% and Singapore 1.3%, and the VN-Index fell for five sessions in a row, as US bond yields stayed high and oil prices remained elevated.

Year-end targets

Indonesia (IHSG): targets cut, but most still above today's level

Earlier in 2026, most brokers' IHSG targets were between about 9,000 and 10,500. Most have since been cut sharply. The latest year-end targets NDNews found:

Broker (date) Year-end target
Mirae Asset Sekuritas (Jul) 6,800 (cut from 10,500)
Mandiri Sekuritas (Sep) 6,810 base; 7,470–7,500 bull case
J.P. Morgan (Sep) 7,000 (cut from 10,000)
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (Jun) 7,200 (cut from 9,440)
Ciptadana Sekuritas (May) 7,780 (cut from 8,960)
Sucor Sekuritas (Jul) 8,000 (cut from 10,000)

Sources: Katadata, ANTARA, Harian Energi, Bisnis, Bareksa.

The range implies upside of roughly 13% to 33% from 2 October, but several targets were set months ago, before the index fell further.

"The IHSG should be able to hover around 6,810," Kresna Hutabarat of Mandiri Sekuritas said in September (NDNews translation). Rully Arya Wisnubroto of Mirae Asset Sekuritas said in July that risks remained and that the recovery "will not be fast, but rather gradual" (NDNews translation).

Thailand (SET): targets raised

Thailand is one of the few markets where targets have gone up. CLSA raised its year-end target to 1,700 from 1,620 in September, Kaohoon International reported. A survey of analysts and fund managers at 25 firms by the Investment Analysts Association put the year-end target at 1,680, according to Kaohoon.

Foreign investors were net buyers of THB51.18 billion of Thai shares from January to August. Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations, warned that "greater dependence on short-term foreign capital could leave Thailand vulnerable to sudden withdrawals," Kaohoon reported.

Singapore (STI): expensive after a strong run

DBS expects the STI to end 2026 at 5,850, with a 12-month target of 6,110. The bank noted that the index trades at 16.7 times forward earnings, about two standard deviations above its 10-year average, Head Topics reported. Some other brokers have higher 12-month targets, but those run beyond the end of the year.

Malaysia (FBM KLCI): modest targets, low valuation

Hong Leong Investment Bank cut its year-end target to 1,720 from 1,760 on 30 September, Focus Malaysia reported. Rakuten Trade has a target of 1,770, The Star reported. "External headwinds are likely to keep market volatility elevated," said Thong Pak Leng of Rakuten Trade, according to Malay Mail.

Philippines (PSEi): at a 2026 low

The PSEi closed at its lowest level of the year on 2 October. Philstocks Financial sees the index between 6,000 and 6,628 by year-end, The Manila Times reported. COL Financial set a target of 7,500 in July, although its own technical analyst gave that only a 20–25% chance, Context.ph reported. Inflation of 6.1% in August and the possibility of further rate hikes weigh on the market.

Vietnam (VN-Index): upgrade done, foreign selling continues

FTSE Russell's upgrade of Vietnam to Secondary Emerging market status took effect on 21 September, according to The Investor. Inclusion is being phased in through September 2027. Foreign investors nonetheless sold Vietnamese shares in the week after the upgrade, Finimize reported. Year-end targets set in July by VNDirect (2,014) and NSI (1,950–1,980) now look ambitious from the current level.

What drives markets into year-end

1. US interest rates. The US Federal Reserve raised its rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September, its first hike since 2023. US 10-year Treasury yields are above 5%. High US yields make Asian assets less attractive to global investors.

2. Oil and the Iran conflict. Brent crude is around US$101–102 a barrel, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted. This hurts oil importers such as Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. For background, see our report on how the Iran war is hitting Asia's economies.

3. Currencies. A weaker local currency reduces returns for foreign investors. See our guide to ASEAN currencies and interest rates into year-end.

4. Indonesia's MSCI review. MSCI said in June that, if sufficient progress is not evident by its November 2026 index review, it will consider a range of options for Indonesia, potentially including a consultation on reclassifying it from Emerging to Frontier market status, according to MSCI. The review announcement is due on 11 November. J.P. Morgan has linked US$4–5 billion of equity outflows since February to MSCI-related concerns. Foreign investors have sold a net of about Rp82 trillion of Indonesian shares this year as of 2 October, according to exchange data cited by Rancak Media.

5. Valuations. Markets that have fallen are cheaper. The KLCI trades at about 14.3 times forward earnings against a 10-year average of 16.8, and the PSEi at about 10.6 times as of late August, according to brokers cited above.

Key dates to watch

Date Event
20–21 Oct Bank Indonesia policy meeting
22 Oct Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas policy meeting
27–28 Oct US Federal Reserve meeting
28 Oct Bank of Thailand policy meeting
3 Nov US midterm elections
5 Nov Bank Negara Malaysia policy meeting
11 Nov MSCI November review announcement
17–18 Nov Bank Indonesia policy meeting
8–9 Dec US Federal Reserve meeting
15–16 Dec Bank Indonesia policy meeting

Third-quarter company earnings, which start this month, will also test whether forecasts hold.

Is there a "Santa rally"?

In Indonesia, the IHSG rose in December in eight of the 10 years from 2015 to 2024, with an average gain of 2.62%, according to CNBC Indonesia research. Past patterns do not guarantee future results, and this year's conditions are unusual.

Bottom line

Analysts' year-end targets suggest room for recovery in Indonesia and the Philippines and limited further gains in Thailand and Singapore after strong runs. But almost every forecast depends on factors outside the region: US rates, oil prices and the conflict involving Iran. For Indonesia, the MSCI decision in November is the single biggest event.

This article was researched with AI assistance and reviewed by the NDNews editorial team. It is based on market data and broker reports as of 2–5 October 2026. Year-to-date changes are NDNews calculations. Not investment advice: analysts' targets are forecasts, not recommendations, and markets can move against them.