The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its monetary policy settings unchanged on Wednesday, 14 October, pausing after tightening in April and July. The decision surprised all 10 analysts polled by Reuters, who had expected a third tightening this year, Reuters reported in a story republished by The Standard.

MAS kept the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar's policy band unchanged, with no change to the band's width or the level at which it is centred, AsiaOne reported. NDNews could not open the statement on the MAS website at the time of writing. The MAS quotes below are as published by AsiaOne and Reuters.

On the same morning, the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI) said the economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, based on advance estimates. The ministry took its current name on 1 October, when the Ministry of Trade and Industry was renamed.

What MAS decided and why

MAS said the existing band, set after the April and July moves, will keep the currency strengthening. "The current appreciating policy band will allow the S$NEER to continue to strengthen and lean against the anticipated near-term rise in imported inflation, ensuring the gradual easing of inflationary pressures in 2027," the central bank said, Reuters reported. MAS added that the currency had "strengthened modestly" within the upper half of the band since July, according to AsiaOne.

MAS still sees upward pressure on prices. "For now, the risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside," it said, AsiaOne reported.

On growth, MAS said: "The Singapore economy should continue to expand at a firm pace in the immediate quarters ahead," Reuters reported. It also said: "Core inflation is projected to ease discernibly from the middle of next year."

Inflation forecasts trimmed

MAS narrowed its 2026 inflation forecasts, Reuters reported. Before today, both measures were projected at 1.5–2.5%, AsiaOne reported in September.

Forecast Before 14 October Now
MAS Core Inflation, 2026 1.5–2.5% 1.5–2.0%
Headline CPI-All Items, 2026 1.5–2.5% About 2%
Core and headline, 2027 Not published 1.5–2.5%

The new 2026 figures are as reported by Reuters and AsiaOne. AsiaOne said headline inflation is expected to "settle at 2 per cent" this year. The 2027 range is as reported by AsiaOne.

Inflation has been rising. MAS Core Inflation reached 2.2% year-on-year in August, up from 2.0% in July. Headline inflation was 2.3%. AsiaOne said core inflation was 2.1% year-on-year over July and August, up from 1.5% in the second quarter.

Third-quarter GDP: slower, but above forecasts

According to METI's advance estimates, GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year in the third quarter. That was slower than the 6.2% now estimated for the second quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, growth eased to 1.1% from 1.5%. In August, the ministry had put second-quarter growth at 5.9% year-on-year and 1.4% quarter-on-quarter. Its new release gives 6.2% and 1.5%.

The year-on-year figure beat economists' forecast of 5.0%, Investing.com reported. The quarterly figure came in just below the expected 1.2%. DBS had forecast 5.4% year-on-year.

By sector, METI said:

  • Manufacturing grew 7.5% year-on-year, down from 12.9%, and shrank 0.9% from the previous quarter. Electronics, precision engineering, transport engineering and general manufacturing supported output, while chemicals and biomedical manufacturing fell.
  • Construction grew 8.8%, faster than 6.1% in the second quarter.
  • Wholesale and retail trade and transportation and storage together grew 8.0%. Information and communications, finance and insurance and professional services grew 4.3%.

METI's advance release did not update the 2026 growth forecast. It noted that the advance estimates are based mainly on July and August data and may be revised. Fuller data will come in the Economic Survey of Singapore in November 2026. The official 2026 forecast is still 4.5–5.5%. The ministry raised it in August, citing "the acceleration in global AI-related capital expenditure".

How the decision compares with expectations

Going into the meeting, economists expected a small slope increase. Barclays' Brian Tan forecast a slight 25-basis-point rise, according to the Reuters poll published on 9 October. DBS also expected "another slight increase". Standard Chartered expected a "very slightly" steeper slope, but cautioned, as summarised by FXStreet: "This may be a close call, with a pause as the main risk."

OCBC economist Selena Ling said she was surprised and that the decision was likely a close call, Reuters reported. "MAS's assessment of the core inflation trajectory is key," she said.

Chua Hak Bin of Maybank told Reuters: "Whether MAS tightens further remains open-ended and will depend on how energy prices and the AI-led boom evolves."

How MAS policy works, and this year's moves

MAS uses the exchange rate, not interest rates, as its main policy tool. It manages the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER), a trade-weighted measure against a basket of partner currencies, within an undisclosed band. MAS can change three things: the slope (how fast the band rises), the centre (its level) and the width (how far the currency may move). Today it left all three unchanged.

In 2026, MAS held in January. It then raised the slope "slightly" in April, citing higher imported energy costs. In July it raised the slope "very slightly". MAS does not publish the slope. Banks estimate it rose to about 1% after April (ING estimate) and to about 1.25% after July (HSBC Private Bank estimate). If those estimates are right, the slope stays around 1.25%.

What it means for the Singapore dollar, borrowers and the region

The Singapore dollar. A pause does not mean a weaker currency. The band still points up, so MAS continues to allow gradual trade-weighted appreciation, only no faster than before. The Singapore dollar was steady at about 1.2802 per US dollar after the announcement, Reuters reported.

Borrowers and savers. MAS steers the exchange rate, so today's decision does not directly change mortgage or deposit rates in Singapore. Those rates depend mainly on wider market conditions, including global interest rates.

The region. For how Singapore's decision fits with policy elsewhere in Asia, see our Asia central banks rate tracker, our analysis of rate hikes across Asia in 2026, and our ASEAN currencies and interest rates outlook.

What to watch

  • Monthly inflation data. These will test MAS's view that core inflation stays slightly elevated in the near term and eases from mid-2027.
  • Energy prices and the AI boom. Maybank's Chua said these will decide whether MAS tightens further.
  • The Economic Survey of Singapore in November 2026. It will include fuller third-quarter data and may update the 2026 growth forecast.
  • The next policy statement, due in January 2027. Trading Economics' calendar lists 29 January 2027. NDNews could not confirm this date with MAS.

Key numbers

  • Unchanged: S$NEER policy band slope, width and centre (14 October 2026).
  • 0 of 10: analysts in the Reuters poll who expected MAS to hold.
  • 5.4%: advance Q3 2026 GDP growth, year-on-year (Q2: 6.2%, revised).
  • 1.1%: Q3 growth, quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted (Q2: 1.5%).
  • 1.5–2.0%: new MAS 2026 core inflation forecast (was 1.5–2.5%).
  • About 2%: new 2026 headline inflation forecast.
  • 1.5–2.5%: 2027 forecast for both core and headline inflation.
  • 2.2%: MAS Core Inflation, August 2026.
  • 4.5–5.5%: official 2026 GDP growth forecast (set in August).
  • About 1.28: Singapore dollars per US dollar after the decision.

This is general information, not financial advice.

This article was researched with AI assistance and reviewed by the NDNews editorial team. It is based on official data and media reports as of 14 October 2026. It is not financial advice.