The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates four times this year. Whether it moves a fifth time is likely to hinge on two Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases due in the next three weeks. Unemployment is at its highest level since 2021, but inflation has risen again. Economists at the big four banks disagree on what comes next, and markets see another rise as possible but not likely.

All four major banks have said they will pass on the September rise in full. We covered that in our report on mortgage rates and falling house prices. This article looks ahead to the November decision and the data that will shape it.

Where the cash rate stands

The RBA's Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, and the vote was unanimous. ABC News reported that this took rates to their highest level since November 2011.

Decision date Move Cash rate target Source
3 February 2026 +25 bp (unanimous) 3.85% RBA
17 March 2026 +25 bp (5–4 vote) 4.10% RBA
5 May 2026 +25 bp (8–1 vote) 4.35% RBA
16 June 2026 Hold (unanimous) 4.35% RBA
11 August 2026 Hold (unanimous) 4.35% RBA
29 September 2026 +25 bp (unanimous) 4.60% RBA

The Board's September statement said that "Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising." It also said "Higher fuel prices have partially been passed through to prices of other goods and services." The Board left the door open to further moves. It said it would do what it considers necessary to bring inflation back to target, "including increasing the cash rate target further if needed."

The next meeting: 2–3 November

Under the RBA's published 2026 schedule, the Board meets on 2–3 November, and its decision is due at 2.30 pm on 3 November. The quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, with updated forecasts, is released at the same time. The year's last meeting is on 7–8 December.

The bind: rising unemployment, sticky inflation

The ABS reported that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August, even though employment grew by 39,000. Unemployment rose by 28,000, and full-time jobs fell by 6,000. The New Daily described 4.6% as "the highest level since November 2021 and in the post-COVID era." The ABS cautioned that a methodology change may affect the August seasonally adjusted figures, and it recommends trend data as the best guide. The trend unemployment rate was also 4.6%.

Inflation has moved the other way. The ABS monthly CPI for August, published on 30 September (the day after the RBA's decision), showed annual inflation rising to 4.0% from 3.5% in July. Electricity rose 13.2% over the year, which the ABS put down mainly to the end of Commonwealth rebates. Automotive fuel rose 13.5%. Rachael McCririck, the ABS head of price statistics, said: "Trimmed mean annual inflation remained steady at 3.6 per cent for the third consecutive month in August."

Wage growth has been moderate. The Wage Price Index rose 3.2% in the year to the June quarter, below headline inflation.

These figures compare with the RBA's August Statement on Monetary Policy, which forecast that:

  • year-ended trimmed mean inflation would be 3.3% in the December quarter of 2026
  • unemployment would be 4.5% in the December quarter of 2026
  • unemployment would rise to 4.7% by the December quarter of 2027.

At the 29 September media conference, Governor Michele Bullock rejected the idea that this amounts to stagflation. "I wouldn't call inflation of 3.5 per cent and an unemployment rate of 4.6 per cent stagflation," she said. She described the jobs market this way: "the labour market remains a little tight," and "a rise in the unemployment rate does not necessarily mean job losses."

She also played down the weight of any single release: "We're not going to put a lot of emphasis necessarily on one number." She said "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down," but added, "I'm not going to give you forward guidance."

What the September minutes added

The minutes of the 28–29 September meeting, released on 13 October, said: "Members expressed their concern that excess demand was greater than previously assessed." They noted that "several of the upside risks identified in August had since materialised or were building", and repeated that the Board would act "including increasing the cash rate target further if required." On jobs, the minutes said "considerable caution is warranted when interpreting the current official labour force data" because of "methodological changes to the survey."

What the banks and markets expect

The big four banks are split, according to The New Daily on 7 October:

  • ANZ expects a rise to 4.85%. Economist Sophia Angala said: "We still think another rate hike in November is more likely than not."
  • Westpac also expects 4.85%. Matthew Hassan, head of Australian macro-forecasting, said: "On balance, we think that a follow-up rate hike is likely at the RBA's November meeting."
  • NAB called a November or December move a "tougher call". It still forecasts a cash rate peak of 4.6%.
  • CBA chief executive Matt Comyn said the decision depends heavily on the 28 October inflation data: "We believe that's the last [rate rise], but certainly I think the last meeting of this calendar year is live." On 13 October, CBA's Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen said "the clear risk is another rate hike", with November "very much live", although CBA economists "continue to expect the cash rate to remain on hold from here" (CommBank).

Market pricing still leans against ANZ and Westpac, although it has edged up. After the August CPI showed trimmed mean inflation steady at 3.6%, money markets priced "only a 20% chance" of a November rise, according to ABC News on 30 September. By 7 October, the ASX RBA Rate Tracker implied a probability of about 24%, FXStreet reported. On 13 October, the day the minutes were released, markets implied about a 28% chance for November and about 50% for a move in December, Reuters reported via Business Recorder. CBA put the November figure at about 30%. Market pricing changes daily, and these figures are snapshots from those dates.

The regional angle: a softer Australian dollar

The Australian dollar fell below 70 US cents after the September rise, ABC News reported on 30 September. It was holding near US$0.6956 on 13 October (Reuters via Business Recorder). For readers in Southeast Asia, the RBA's decision feeds into how the dollar moves against regional currencies. Our APAC central bank rates tracker and our report on Asia's central banks raising rates against inflation compare where other policymakers stand.

What to watch

Date Release or event Why it matters
Thursday 15 October Labour Force, September 2026 (ABS) Shows whether unemployment keeps rising beyond the RBA's forecast path; the September minutes urged "considerable caution" with the current survey data
28 October CPI, September 2026, including September-quarter data (ABS) CBA's Matt Comyn says the decision will depend heavily on it; ANZ expects September-quarter trimmed mean inflation to beat the RBA's forecasts
2–3 November Monetary Policy Board meeting and Statement on Monetary Policy Decision and new forecasts on 3 November
18 November Wage Price Index, September quarter (ABS) Shows wage pressure ahead of December
7–8 December Final 2026 Board meeting The fallback date if November is a hold

A November rise is most likely if September-quarter underlying inflation comes in clearly above the RBA's August forecasts. A further rise in unemployment would make a hold more likely, especially if trend data confirm it.

Key numbers

  • 4.60%: RBA cash rate target after the 29 September rise, the fourth of 2026
  • 4.6%: unemployment rate in August, seasonally adjusted
  • 4.0%: annual CPI inflation in August, up from 3.5% in July (ABS)
  • 3.6%: annual trimmed mean inflation in August, unchanged for three months (ABS)
  • 3.2%: annual wage growth to the June quarter (ABS)
  • 2 of 4: big four banks forecasting a November rise to 4.85% (The New Daily)
  • ~28%: market-implied chance of a November rise on 13 October (Reuters via Business Recorder), up from about 24% on 7 October (FXStreet)

This is general information, not financial advice.

This article was researched with AI assistance and reviewed by the NDNews editorial team. It is based on official data and media reports as of 14 October 2026. It is not financial advice.